Global Intelligence Assessment, New Year 2018

  1. The Kremlin (RU) have commenced an undeclared hybrid war on the West, designed to destabilise the UK, US, EU and subsequently NATO, thus freeing itself of sanctions and monitors while allowing it to make more money – Confidence: High
  2. Internally in RU this is supported by the unholy alliance of organised crime and intelligence services born out of the chaos of post Yeltsin Russia – Confidence: High
  3. Externally RU have sought and succeeded in finding ideological allies and compromised assets capable of exerting influence on Western behaviour. This includes the use of oligarch figures to help install managed democracies, Putin’s preferred model – Confidence: High
  4. RU have been successful in the UK, US and Qatar, failed outright in Kenya and France, and been at least partially successful in Germany, Catalonia/Spain, Hungary, Poland and Italy – Confidence: High
  5. The current North Korea crisis is specifically designed to use their US asset (Trump Administration) to pressurise China while cutting off the US’s own Asia-Pac ties and isolating Australia and New Zealand. This strategically finishes off five-eyes – Confidence: High
  6. Part of the Western impact is coming from pressure on news media by discrediting it, and we can also name the major disinformation actors in this field – Confidence: High
  7. RU have successfully executed a regional destabilisation centred on Turkey and Syria which has increased migration pressure on the EU and created a perfect environment for disinformation campaigns masked as ISIL – Confidence: High
  8. RU cyber weapons have successfully been deployed internationally on critical infrastructure systems, power grids and supply centres and this will escalate over the coming 24 months – Confidence: High
  9. RU will continue electoral interference operations throughout 2018/2019 and early signs show they will deploy in Ireland and Scotland as well as Italy and number of other strategic EU countries. Escalation will occur across the remaining Five Eyes nations (AU, NZ and CA) and the BRICS nations – Confidence: High